Assessing the Economic Impact of Vision 2030 on Saudi Arabia’s Tourism Sector: A Case Study of Diriyah’s Tourism Development

Abstract

This dissertation examines the economic implications of Vision 2030 in Saudi Arabia in the tourism development of Diriyah, a mega-project centered on heritage development located at the epicenter of the diversification program in the Kingdom. The aim of the work is to evaluate the impact of the Vision 2030 policies on the non-oil fraction of the GDP of Diriyah, labor creation, and comparative competitiveness in the national tourism system. The specific objectives included measuring the awareness of such policies among the stakeholders, exploring the relationship between tourism and GDP, examining the effects on employment, and comparing the performance of Diriyah to that of other Vision 2030 projects such as NEOM and the Red Sea Project. This research adopts a quantitative research design through which the primary survey of 150 respondents (tourists, workers, and business owners) is combined with the secondary economic indicators. Analytical techniques include descriptive statistics, t-tests, correlation analysis, ANOVA, multiple regression models, and the Mann-Whitney U test. The findings showed a strong level of awareness of the stakeholders regarding Vision 2030 and a positive perception regarding the efficacy of policies, especially e-visas and cultural branding. There was a strong positive correlation between GDP and tourism receipts, which demonstrated the importance of tourism in the non-oil growth of the economy. There was, however, inconsistency in employment outcomes; although perceptions were positive, the regression analysis did not justify sustained job security. Diriyah is a leader in heritage tourism, where it lags behind NEOM and Red Sea in size and prominence. Conclusively, the research concludes that Vision 2030 is an effective policy framework, but Diriyah has irregular economic progress due to the delay in implementation, external shocks like COVID-19, and a shortage of workforce skills. Among the recommendations are to speed up infrastructure investment as well as devise specific training for stakeholders, better systematic data that can be used to make inter-project assessments, and a larger stakeholder involvement in the evaluations to be done in the future.

Altogether, this study enriches the policy literature on tourism by conducting a localized and evidence-based evaluation of the impacts of Vision 2030, as well as by putting forward an exportable model of evaluating the contribution of tourism to rentier economies’ diversification.