Browsing by Author "Alsayed, Mohammed"

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Decarbonising the aluminium value chain through cross-regional corridor optimisation: a techno-economic and emissions framework for Australia-Middle East-Europe pathways
(Saudi Digital Library, 2026) Alsayed, Mohammed; Rahman, Daiyan
Aluminium is a structural input to the energy transition, yet its production remains emissions-intensive because of the heat demand of alumina refining, the electricity intensity of smelting and the carbon consumed at the anode. This study develops a corridor-level techno-economic and emissions framework for aluminium value-chain configurations linking Australia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to destination markets in Europe and China. The framework integrates bauxite extraction, inland logistics, alumina refining, primary smelting and casting, secondary aluminium production and marine delivery within a consistent mass, cost and emissions accounting structure. Stage-level process assumptions are combined with location-specific electricity-system outputs and a set of scenario pathways spanning natural-gas baseline operation, gas with abatement, electrification, hydrogen-supported refining, inert-anode deployment, PPA-based electricity procurement and secondary recycling. The framework is used to examine whether the lowest-cost corridor is also the lowest-emissions corridor, to quantify switching behaviour under electricity, hydrogen and carbon-policy sensitivities, and to evaluate how CBAM alters the relative competitiveness of Australian and Middle Eastern routes. The results show that no single corridor dominates across all objectives. Under the five-criterion multi-criteria assessment with balanced weighting, the Australian full chain ranks first, while the United Arab Emirates full chain ranks second. When the analysis is extended in the final synthesis to include subsidy reliance, CBAM 2034 exposure and pathway flexibility, the ranking shifts: UAE-anchored full-chain configurations emerge as the highest-ranked balanced option, reflecting their combination of low delivered cost, limited CBAM exposure and minimal reliance on direct subsidies, while hybrid Australia-to-UAE smelt corridors follow as a competitive intermediate option. Australia-only full-chain routes dominate under carbon-priority weighting and score strongly on regulatory stability and chokepoint resilience, supporting their inclusion in a diversified procurement portfolio. Applied to the Australian baseline, the framework estimates a delivered cost of USD 2,906/t Al and an embedded footprint of approximately 11.0 t CO₂-e/t Al under business-as-usual conditions. Under the 2050 S2 gas-with-abatement pathway, delivered cost rises to USD 3,835/t Al while embedded emissions fall to 4.3 t CO₂-e/t Al, remaining below the 2050 LME reference of USD 4,200/t Al. The corresponding 2050 S2 full-chain cases for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reach USD 3,174/t Al and USD 3,261/t Al, with emissions of 4.5 and 4.1 t CO₂-e/t Al, respectively. Secondary aluminium delivers the lowest per-tonne emissions but is bounded by scrap availability and alloy quality, and therefore acts as a complement rather than a substitute. Taken together, the findings indicate that aluminium decarbonisation is best approached as a corridor and portfolio problem, and that long-term industrial PPAs, supported by time- limited Contract-for-Difference mechanisms, can help bridge the near-term renewable-electricity competitiveness gap during the transition.
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