ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY

Abstract

This dissertation examines the impacts of climate change on crop yields and food security, focusing on critical crops such as wheat, barley, sugar beets, soybeans, and corn. Using both direct and indirect climate factors like temperature, precipitation, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Heating/Cooling Degree Days, the study employs statistical models such as Pearson correlation and Lasso regression to explore how these variables affect crop productivity. The results highlight that higher maximum temperatures generally lead to reduced yields, while minimum temperatures and increased precipitation have mixed impacts depending on the crop and region. Specifically, the research identifies regional variability in crop responses to climatic changes in North Dakota, with some areas showing resilience to temperature fluctuations and others benefiting more from increased precipitation. The dissertation emphasizes the critical role of adaptive strategies, including selecting climate-resilient crop varieties and optimizing water management practices, to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on agricultural yields. These findings underscore the urgent need for region-specific strategies to ensure sustainable agricultural productivity and food security in the face of a rapidly changing climate.