Theorizing the Factors of Outmigration Among Post-Secondary Students in Niagara Falls: A Mixed Method Study to Guide Policy Considerations

Abstract

Niagara Falls, New York has a historic trend of outmigration as well as a median average income well below the national average according to US Census data. Located in Niagara County, the city of Niagara Falls is near the county’s two post-secondary educational institutions: Niagara County Community College, and Niagara University. These post-secondary institutions produce a vast number of graduates each year, however, the educational attainment level or composition for the city of Niagara Falls does not reflect the retention of post-secondary graduates. This suggests that graduates of post-secondary institutions in Niagara County are perhaps moving out of the city after they have earned their post-secondary degrees, or those with post-secondary degrees from Niagara County or elsewhere, are not seeking to inhabit the city of Niagara Falls. Undoubtedly, there is substantial evidence that suggests higher educated individuals stimulate the economy, however, the city of Niagara Falls may not be reaping the benefits of the graduates produced in their region if they cannot maintain or attract them post-graduation. For a city characterized by its impoverished state, retaining post-secondary graduates may serve as a conduit for local economic stimulation and potential revitalization of the region. Therefore, the purpose of this exploratory research study is to uncover the underlying reason for low educational attainment level in the city of Niagara Falls. Investigating both the perception of the region among currently enrolled post-secondary students in Niagara County and assessing the predominant drivers of outmigration for this population may help guide policy initiatives toward the targeted retention and/or attraction strategies of this key demographic. This mixed method study uses a three-pronged approach to explore the phenomenon of outmigration and low educational attainment for the region, using a mixed method concurrent triangulation research design, where the qualitative and quantitative inquiry occurs at the same time but do not influence one another. Grounded theory informs the qualitative aspect of the research where several rounds of in-depth interviews with current post-secondary degree-seeking students allow for rich data from the lived experience to be communicated, collected, and analyzed iteratively. At the culmination of this process is an emergent theory that speaks to the low education attainment level of the region by articulating the significant drivers of outmigration for current post-secondary students, their current perception of the region, as well as their migratory intentions post-graduation, if any. The quantitative aspect of this study entails the use of a survey instrument which was distributed to this population to measure the significance between outmigration intentions and educational attainment level with respect to their perception of the region as well as an assertion of factors that are most significant in their out-migration decision-making process. While the in-depth interviews and survey instrument provide both an emerging theory and tangible data to answer the research question, the use of a survey based statistical analysis technique known as choice-based conjoint analysis uses the preliminary qualitative and quantitative findings to offer further tangible insights into the valuation schematics of the attributes that have the most significant impact on this demographics outmigration decision making process. The mixed method design of this study is integral to future knowledge dissemination efforts, allowing for accessible communication distribution to interested stakeholders and used as a potential tool for policy development and marketing initiatives by providing both rich statistical data and meaningful insights from the lived experience of the key demographic. Future studies may build upon the findings outlined in this study to further assess the potential economic and social impacts of specific post-secondary attraction and retention strategies. These findings may also be of relevance more broadly for regions with a similar characterization of poverty, outmigration, and low educational attainment levels.