Impact of climate change on evaporation, surface runoff and soil moisture on a regional scale in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

The climate change over Saudi Arabia at the end of the 21sl century is investigated using PRECIS software, a regional climate model system that can be run on a personal computer, developed by the Hadley Center at the UK Met Office to produce high resolution climate scenarios. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change produced reports on potential emission scenarios, from which two scenarios (A2 and B2) were adopted for this study. The study area is divided into six regions and thirty-seven selected locations over Saudi Arabia. Temperature, precipitation, evaporation, wind speed, soil moisture and runoff were investigated. Results indicated that the years 2071 - 2100 under A2 scenario will generally experience warmer temperature, more precipitation, less evaporation, and more runoff than under the B2 scenario compared to the present. A significant result was the increase of mean daily temperature by 3.0 °c to 4.2 °c, and the increase of precipitation by 23% to 41%.