Power system generation reliability.

Abstract

The reliability analysis of a proposed expansion strategy for an isolated system and two systems interconnected by a tie-line is considered. Two alternative methods namely, recursive convolution and Capacity Outage Probability Tables, are used for the analysis. A comprehensive computer program based on the recursive convolution method is developed. The method takes into consideration unit availability and their effects on the reliability indices namely: Loss of Load Probability, Loss of Load Expectation, Expected Demand Not Served, Expected Energy Not Served, and Energy Index of Reliabiity. The effect of uncertainties demand forecast are included. The Effective Load Carrying Capacity of an added unit as well as the Load Carrying Capability of the total system for a specific Loss of Load Expectation risk index are incorporated. Load correlation effect for two interconnected systems is also considered.