SHATTERED PERCEPTIONS: HOW NEGATIVE NEWS TRUMPS DESTINATION IMAGE IN CONFLICT-RIDDEN REGIONS

Abstract

This research investigates the causal effect of negative news media on destination image formation in conflict-ridden regions, addressing a critical gap in tourism literature. Destination image is pivotal in tourists’ decision-making processes and overall destination competitiveness. In conflict-ridden regions like the Middle East, negative news coverage can significantly impact these perceptions, potentially deterring visitors and affecting tourism economies. Despite the recognised importance of news media as an autonomous agent in image formation, limited empirical research has examined its causal effects, particularly in conflict- ridden areas. This study aims to comprehensively understand how negative news shapes destination image, the underlying mechanisms of this effect, and potential moderating factors. Study One establishes the main effect of negative news on destination image through a 2 (within-subjects: Time [before news story, after news story]) × 2 (between-subjects: News Frame [thematic, episodic]) × 4 (Countries [Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Qatar]) experimental design. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) reveals that negative news significantly decreases destination image for the featured location and, to a lesser extent, other destinations in the region. The study demonstrates the robustness of this effect across different news frames, providing initial evidence for the pervasive impact of negative media coverage on regional perceptions. Study Two replicates and extends these findings using a 2 (Story type: negative v. ordinary) × 2 (Connotation: negative v. neutral) × Continuous prevention focus, between- participants experimental design. Through mediation analyses, it identifies perceived risk and negative emotions as significant mediators in the relationship between negative news and destination image. Additionally, moderation analysis reveals that prevention focus moderates the effect of negative news on perceived risk, with high prevention-focused individuals being more susceptible to negative news effects. Study Three further confirms these results and examines the impact across different travel arrangements using a 2 (Story type: negative v. ordinary) × 2 (Travelling arrangements: independent traveller v. all-inclusive packaged travellers) between-participants experimental design. The findings demonstrate that the negative effect of news persists for both independent iv Chapter 1: Introduction and package travellers, challenging assumptions about the risk-mitigating potential of all- inclusive packages in conflict-ridden destinations. Theoretically, this research makes several important contributions. It provides the first causal evidence of the negative effect of news media on destination image formation in conflict-ridden regions, addressing calls for more rigorous methodologies in this area. Identifying perceived risk and negative emotions as mediators advances understanding of the psychological mechanisms underlying this effect. Further, the research extends the application of regulatory focus theory in tourism contexts by demonstrating its relevance to news processing and destination perceptions. This research fills a significant geographical gap in tourism studies by examining an under-researched geographical region, thereby enhancing the global relevance of tourism scholarship and providing valuable insights for both academic discourse and practical tourism management. Practically, the findings offer valuable insights for destination marketing organisations in conflict-ridden regions. The research underscores the need for proactive media monitoring and rapid response strategies to counteract negative coverage. It highlights the importance of addressing both cognitive (perceived risk) and affective (negative emotions) components in image management efforts. The findings related to prevention focus suggest the need for tailored marketing approaches that consider individual differences in risk sensitivity. In conclusion, this research comprehensively examines how negative news media influences destination image formation in conflict-ridden regions. Establishing causal relationships, identifying underlying mechanisms and exploring moderating factors advances both theoretical understanding and practical strategies in destination marketing. As global tourism continues to navigate geopolitical challenges and media dynamics, these insights offer crucial guidance for managing destination perceptions in complex environments.