Game Theory Application to Strategic Decision Making in Space Debris Management

Abstract

This dissertation addresses the pressing challenges of space debris that pose a significant threat to the sustainability of space operations, endangering both existing satellites and future space missions. Space debris, comprising defunct satellites, spent rocket stages, and collision fragments, creates significant risks for operational spacecraft and future missions. As debris density increases, so does the likelihood of cascading collision events, a phenomenon known as Kessler syndrome, which could render entire orbital regions unusable and severely impact essential space-based services. Despite growing awareness of this challenge, current management approaches remain fragmented and inadequate. Existing models typically address either physical dynamics or economic aspects in isolation, failing to capture the critical interactions between human decision making and debris evolution. This research gap is particularly concerning as the space industry transitions from state dominated activities to a commercial ecosystem characterized by rapid innovation and complex competition. To address these challenges, this study develops a com prehensive framework that combines game-theoretic approaches with detailed mathematical modeling to analyze space debris management strategies. Chapter 2 of the dissertation applies evolutionary game theory and population dynamics to evaluate how different management strategies evolve over time under various scenarios. Through the development of both standard and advanced models, this study demonstrates how different management strategies evolve over time. Adopting complementary models that incorporate the NASA Standard Breakup Model, collision probability calculations, and realistic economic payoff structures, this research demonstrates that market forces alone are insufficient to prevent orbital environmental degradation. The analysis of five distinct scenarios provides a holistic view of the long-term consequences of different policy approaches. Chapter 3 draws on classical game theory to analyze strategic interactions in managing space debris, emphasizing the importance of collaboration among stakeholders in avoiding the tragedy of the commons in space. This analysis highlights the risks associated with unregulated exploitation, as well as the benefits of promoting cooperation through economic incentives. The results reveal critical insights into the long-term consequences of different management approaches. This dissertation contributes to the ongoing dialogue on sustainable space utilization and offers a quantitative framework for informed decision-making in space policy and sustainability