Beyond Simple Adoption: Policy Design and Demographic, Ownership Pathways and Technology Efficiency in Residential Solar Markets

Abstract

This dissertation examines how policy design, ownership structure, and technological quality shape U.S. residential solar adoption. While studies often treat adoption as a binary outcome, this framework is incomplete because adoption counts alone do not explain how households participate in the distributed energy transition. It is also necessary to examine system types, financing pathways, and whether higher-performing technologies diffuse evenly across communities. The central argument is that policy and market design create the choice architecture for residential solar decisions, while demographics shape choices within that architecture. Consequently, policy effectiveness and equity must be evaluated not only by total deployment, but by who adopts, what they adopt, how they adopt it, and how equitably advanced technology is accessed. Using installation-level data linked to ZIP-code demographics, this dissertation analyzes these dynamics across Arizona, California, New York, and Vermont. The first chapter examines whether solar system choices are driven more by household demographics or by policy environments. Classifying installations by ownership, size, and storage, it shows that while demographics matter, policy context plays a stronger role in shaping feasible choices. The second chapter investigates how net metering reform affects adoption through ownership structure. Combining a national analysis with a difference-in-differences case study of Salt River Project and Arizona Public Service, it finds that restrictive export compensation reduces adoption primarily by weakening third-party ownership rather than prompting substitution into direct purchase. The third chapter shifts to technology quality, analyzing photovoltaic module efficiency relative to the yearly market frontier. It finds that module efficiency improved over time across all states, but unevenly. The dissertation recommends evaluating solar policy through a broader framework encompassing adoption volume, ownership structure, configuration, storage access, and technology quality. It urges policymakers to preserve diverse adoption pathways, design equity-oriented incentives that lower upfront barriers, expand storage access, improve market transparency, and collect detailed system data. Ultimately, equitable policy must look beyond installation counts to improve the systems households can access and the benefits they receive.