SACM - United Kingdom
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://drepo.sdl.edu.sa/handle/20.500.14154/9667
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Item Restricted Fiscal Policy and Inflation Dynamics under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: An ARDL Analysis of SAU, UAE, US, and UK (1990-2024)(Saudi Digital Library, 2025) Albandari, Abaalala; Agnes, KovacsThis dissertation examines the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation across four economies operating under different Exchange regimes: SAU and UAE (currency pegs), and US and UK (floating rates). Using annual data from 1990-2024 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, this study tests whether fiscal policy systematically affects inflation within different institutional contexts. The findings reveal significant variation in fiscal-inflation relationships across institutional contexts. Fixed regime economies show no systematic associations between fiscal policy and inflation, with SAU exhibiting rejected cointegration and UAE yielding inconclusive results. Among floating economies, the US demonstrates confirmed cointegration with a significant negative fiscal-inflation relationship, while the UK shows strong cointegration evidence but no systematic fiscal influence on inflation. These results indicate that institutional frameworks and structural characteristics may be more important than exchange rate regime classifications in determining fiscal-inflation transmission, with Gulf states relying on structural buffers and advanced economies depending on institutional credibility and market discipline mechanisms.10 0Item Restricted Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve under Vision 2030 Reforms(Saudi Digital Library, 2025) Alotaibi, Shihana; Byrne, JosephThis dissertation examines whether the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis holds in Saudi Arabia by analyzing the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, and technological innovation over the period 1990–2022. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) econometric framework is employed and carefully estimated, supported by unit root and cointegration testing, using annual national data. Policy and structural shifts are accounted for through two dummy variables capturing the Kyoto Protocol (1997–1999) and the launch of Vision 2030 (post-2016). The results confirm the presence of a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. However, there is no evidence of the inverted-U pattern predicted by the EKC. Instead, the estimates indicate a U-shaped relationship, with CO2 emissions increasing alongside economic growth at higher income levels, reflecting the persistent reliance on fossil fuels in the Saudi economy. Energy consumption emerges as the dominant long-run driver of emissions. Innovation, proxied by annual patent counts, exerts only a limited short-run effect, suggesting that the diffusion of green technologies has yet to influence emissions trajectories meaningfully. The findings confirm that economic growth alone will not achieve environmental improvements, requiring targeted reforms. Expanding renewable energy capacity and strengthening the Saudi Energy Efficiency Program across sectors are essential to lower carbon intensity. Developing human capital is equally important, as the transition demands skilled labor and technological capacity. Energy price reform, including cost-reflective pricing and carbon charges, would discourage wasteful consumption. Finally, strong international collaboration is needed to reinforce domestic efforts and align fully with Saudi Arabia’s long-term climate commitments8 0Item Restricted The Effects of Oil Price Variations on Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Saudi Arabia and Spain(Birkbeck, University of London, 2024-10) Alzamel, Hussah Adnan; Beckert, WalterThis study investigates the effects of oil price variations on stock market performance in Saudi Arabia and Spain. Specifically, we employ the autoregressive distributed lag model to estimate the effects of oil price changes on stock market returns in these net oil-exporting and oil- importing nations, respectively. The empirical findings suggest that, in both cases, oil price increases led to corresponding increases in stock market returns. However, the stock markets of both countries reacted differently to oil price changes during the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a massive slump in global demand. In Saudi Arabia, a nation whose economy relied heavily on oil, the impact was negative, whereas in Spain, the impact was positive. Using the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (1,1) model, we also modelled volatility in the stock returns and found that oil price increase reduced volatility in the stock returns. Keywords: Saudi Arabia, Spain, ARDL, GARCH, oil prices, stock returns49 0Item Restricted Saudi Stock Market Under Vision 2030: The Economic Factors at Play(University of Sussex, 2024) ALmuhaisen, Fahad; Pelkonen, PanuThis research provides an in-depth analysis of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the performance of the Saudi stock market, mainly (TASI) the Tadawul All Share Index within the context of Saudi Vision 2030. Using monthly data covering between January 2017 to December 2023, the study addresses the influence of inflation, interest rate on deposits, oil price, and foreign exchange reserve on the TASI index. Understanding how these macroeconomic factors impact the TASI will be useful for Saudi Arabian policymakers and investors, enabling more informed decisions and reduced risk exposure. The research utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework for conducting the analysis. and discovers that the short- and long-term positive relationship between the price of oil and TASI is substantial, highlighting their continued influence on the Saudi stock market despite economic diversification efforts. Other variables like foreign exchange reserves, inflation, and interest rates show no significant long-term nor short impact on TASI. The study highlights the stability of the model parameters and the non existence of heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, and omitted variables, offering valuable insights for paunderstanding market dynamics and guiding financial decision making in Saudi Arabia.58 0