Saudi Cultural Missions Theses & Dissertations
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Item Restricted AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE IMPACT OF OIL RENT, INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY, AND EXCHANGE RATES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND IMPORT PRICES IN OIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIES(The University of Newcastle, 2024-03-03) Aljamaan, Saleh A; Agbola, Frank W; Mahmood, AmirThe objective of this thesis was to examine the impact of oil rent and institutional quality on economic growth, the exchange rate–inflation nexus and the exchange rate–import price nexus in oil-producing countries. Many countries that produce oil depend heavily on the revenue generated from it. However, the impact of this revenue on the economy depends on how it is allocated and managed. The quality of a country's institutions also plays a significant role in shaping economic activity. Studies show that the effectiveness of using oil revenue in the economy is based on the institutional structure of the country. This confirms the importance of having high-quality institutions in place to properly allocate and manage oil revenue. Therefore, Chapter 3, Study 1 of the thesis examined the impact of oil rent on economic growth and investigated how institutional quality affects the relationship between oil rent and economic growth. Previous research suggests that having abundant oil rent can help a country manage exchange rates, which can contribute to price stability in oil-producing countries. Those who support monetary policy argue that implementing effective monetary policies can help stabilise the exchange rate. However, the current literature has not yet examined how oil rent and institutional quality affect exchange rate pass-through, especially in oil-producing countries. Consequently, Chapter 4, Study 2 and Chapter 5, Study 3 of the thesis examined the effects of oil rent and institutional quality on exchange rate pass-through to inflation and import prices, respectively, in oil-producing countries. This thesis comprises three empirical studies. Study 1 empirically investigated the effect of oil rent and institutional quality on economic growth, using comprehensive and reliable panel data for 84 oil-producing countries from 1970 to 2020. The study utilised an endogenous economic growth modelling framework and estimated the models using the Two-Step Instrumental Variable Generalised Method of Moment (2SIV-GMM) estimator. The study accounted for endogeneity, year-fixed effect and cross-section dependence. The empirical results indicate, first, that there is no empirical evidence of the Dutch disease phenomenon in oil-producing countries. The results show that oil rent enhances economic growth in oil-producing countries. Second, the results show that institutional quality positively affects economic growth. However, the interaction between oil rent and institutional quality reveals that institutional quality curtails the positive effect of oil rent on economic growth. Third, domestic investment, human capital and government consumption are growth-enhancing, while foreign direct investment, inflation and trade openness are growth-impeding. The results are robust to alternative model specifications, level of economic development and income grouping, for both Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC members, for pre- and post-GFC (global financial crisis) periods, and top oil-exporting countries. Study 2 empirically examined the effect of exchange rate pass-through on inflation and the moderating role of oil rent and institutional quality on the exchange rate–inflation nexus. The inflation models were estimated using the Two-Step System Generalised Method of Moment (2SS-GMM) estimator; the study accounted for endogeneity, cross-section dependence and country heterogeneity for 43 oil-producing countries from 1970–2020. Furthermore, the study investigated the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on inflation. The results indicate that exchange rates have a positive pass-through to inflation, except for developed countries, inflation-targeting countries, and the post-GFC period, where exchange rates had a negative pass-through effect on inflation. The study reveals that countries with managed currency regimes experience less exchange rate pass-through to inflation. While the impact of oil rent on the exchange rate–inflation nexus was mixed, institutional quality was found to moderate the impact of exchange rate pass-through to inflation. The results show that gross domestic product (GDP) growth and exporter costs exacerbated inflation in oil-producing countries. The findings are robust across alternative model specifications and alternative oil rent and institutional quality measures, for pre- and post-GFC periods, and top oil-exporting countries. Study 3 empirically tested the effect of exchange rate pass-through on import prices and the moderating role of oil rent and institutional quality on exchange rates and import prices nexus. The import price models were estimated using the 2SS-GMM estimator for 43 oil-producing countries from 1970–2020. The study accounted for endogeneity, cross-section dependence and country heterogeneity. The results indicate that the effect of exchange rate pass-through on import prices varies, with higher pass-through experienced during periods of exchange rate depreciation. The results reveal that developed countries, inflation-targeting countries and countries with flexible exchange rate regimes experience less exchange rate pass-through to import prices. The results indicate that, while the effect of oil rent on the exchange rate and import prices was mixed, institutional quality moderated the effect of exchange rate pass-through on import prices. The results show that GDP growth and exporter costs increased import prices. The results remain consistent with alternative model specifications, alternative oil rent and institutional quality measures, during pre- and post-GFC periods, and top oil-exporting countries. This thesis makes several contributions to policy. The first contribution draws from the empirical results of Chapter 3, Study 1. A major contribution relates to the theoretical debate and empirical contradictions on the Dutch disease hypothesis. Although previous studies explored the link between oil rent and economic growth, only some incorporated institutional quality in their endogenous growth models. Furthermore, most of these studies failed to critically examine the moderating role of institutional quality on the oil rent–economic growth nexus in oil-producing countries. The findings of this study provide new empirical evidence to inform policy formulation and implementation. The policy implication for oil rent is that oil-producing countries should focus on strategies to maximise the benefits of oil rent and promote sustainable economic growth. One effective approach is to ensure oil rent is used effectively, allocating a portion of oil rent towards long-term investment, such as infrastructure, education and other non-oil sectors of the economy. In addition, policymakers need to strengthen institutional quality by improving governance practices and redesigning institutional frameworks to better align with economic activities, particularly in the oil sector of oil-producing countries. This includes enhancing institutional adaptability and responsiveness to the economic repercussions of an oil boom. The second contribution is based on the key findings of Chapter 4, Study 2, which offers a distinctive theoretical and empirical framework of the direct and indirect effects of exchange rate, oil rent and institutional quality on inflation. Given the positive impact of exchange rate pass-through on inflation, the results emphasise the need for policymakers to implement effective monetary and fiscal policies when the currency depreciates. This action may include currency interventions, managing budget and spending plans, and adopting inflation-targeting measures to mitigate the impact of high exchange rate pass-through to inflation for oil-producing countries. The empirical results reveal a mixed effect of oil rent on exchange rate pass-through to inflation. Policymakers can utilise oil rent to manage the impact of the exchange rate on inflation by strengthening the country's exchange rate position. This can be achieved by accumulating foreign exchange reserves and investing oil revenue in non-oil sectors to diversify the economy, thus, contributing to maintaining economic stability. Furthermore, the empirical results of Chapter 4, Study 2, show that institutional quality can moderate the exchange rate–inflation nexus in oil-producing countries. This suggests the need for policymakers to strengthen institutional frameworks further by improving governance, reducing corruption, and strengthening regulatory frameworks to stabilise exchange rates and reduce inflation. The third contribution is based on key findings of Chapter 5, Study 3, which provides new empirical evidence for evaluating the direct and indirect effects of exchange rate, oil rent and institutional quality on import prices. The policy implication of the positive impact of exchange rate pass-through to import prices is the need for oil-producing countries to implement additional monetary and fiscal policies to mitigate high import prices during currency depreciation. This may involve supporting the local currency through foreign exchange rate reserves and trade policies, such as tariffs and quotas. The results of Study 3 suggest that policymakers need to reduce the oil rent effect on import prices by implementing strategies and fiscal policies to reduce high import prices in oil-producing countries, especially for developing countries and non-inflation-targeting countries during periods of currency appreciation. These measures will ensure that oil-producing countries avoid wasteful spending during high oil revenues, choosing, instead, to prioritise savings and direct investment towards sectors conducive to long-term economic stability. In addition, the empirical results of Chapter 5, Study 3, show that institutional quality could reduce the effect of exchange rates on import prices in oil-producing countries. The recommendation for policymakers is to improve institutional quality by fostering competition in domestic markets, thereby preventing monopolistic or oligopolistic practices that drive up import prices. Moreover, effective institutional quality can enhance the confidence and behaviour of investors and consumers through the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies.13 0Item Unknown “Humanising Cities Initiative: Evaluating Social Sustainability with a Focus on Well-Being through Quality-of-Life Programme Efforts - A Case Study of Madinah, Saudi Arabia: A Comprehensive Analysis(Univerity of Sheffiled, 2024-08) Moafa, Mona Mohammed; Williams, GlynThis dissertation evaluates the "Humanising Cities" initiative in Madinah, Saudi Arabia, as one of the vital components of the Quality of Life Programme, derived from Saudi Vision 2030. The initiative focuses on enhancing social sustainability and residents' well-being through improvements in urban design, public spaces, and infrastructure. The research explores four broad themes: Urban Design and Public Spaces, Social Sustainability, Residents' Well-being and Economic Growth, and Alignment with Vision 2030. Data was collected using a mixed-methods approach, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative responses from 78 residents of Madinah through a survey. Thematic analysis highlights the programme's successes and areas for improvement, with particular focus on walkability, the expansion of green spaces, and community engagement. While significant successes were identified—such as positive impacts on physical health and local economic development—regional disparities and gaps in public awareness were also noted. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to ensure equitable access to the benefits of urban development and point to future research and policy considerations. Ultimately, this study provides valuable insights into the role of urban humanisation initiatives in fostering sustainable, inclusive, and liveable cities within the broader framework of Vision 2030.29 0Item Unknown Economic Growth and Corruption: A Comprehensive Study of Regional Asia, MENA and African Union(Western Sydney University, 2023-11-01) Shawdari, Ahmed; Gangopadhyay, ParthaThis thesis provides a thorough examination of the effects of corruption on economic growth in three geographical areas: the Asian Region, the MENA region ,and the African Union. This study is an empirical inquiry into whether corruption is a serious constant to expansion in Asia Region, the Middle East , and African Union . Chapter 1 Explains the background of this topic. Chapter 2 Investigates the impact of law and order, capital formation, and workforce on economic growth in SAARC countries. Economic growth in India is the focus of Chapter 3's analysis of renewable and non-renewable energy sources. Chapter 4 Investigates the impact of corruption, quality of bureaucracy, government stability, law and order and foreign direct investment on the economic growth of three regions. Chapter 5 How the corruption-growth nexus affected by institutions of India and Indonesia. Chapter 6 Conclusion and policy recommendations based on the findings of this thesis.11 0Item Unknown AN EMPIRICAL STUDY FOR THE ROLE OF THE MORTGAGE IN THE HOUSE PRICES, REAL ESTATE MARKET AND ECONOMIC GROWTH(Saudi Digital Library, 2023-12-01) Ajeeb, Samar Kamil; Wei Sieng, LaiIn recent years, many countries have shown interest in searching for non-oil sources of income. One of these sources is the bank credit. Bank credit is important to economic growth due to new globalization trends. Saudi Arabia is one of the countries to embark on bank credit. In its Vision 2030, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has shifted fundamentally in aligning its interests in non-oil production to promote sustainable development in all sectors. One of the most important tributaries of this production is the real estate market. In 2012, the Saudi Arabian government officially introduced the mortgage system as a new tool to promote economic growth. Therefore, this study focuses on Saudi Arabia as a special case to analyze the impact of mortgages on house prices and its role in solving the problem of continuous high-price houses in Saudi Arabia by using Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) regression using quarterly data from 2005 to 2019. Another purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of mortgages on the growth of the real estate market in Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimator and annual data from 1970 and 2019 are employed. Finally, this study aims to determine the extent of mortgage involvement in increasing the economic growth rate in oil-producing countries. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is used to analyze panel data of 46 oil-producing countries including Saudi Arabia from 2005 to 2019. The data was collected from numerous sources, such as the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), the World Bank, and the IMF. The outcomes revealed the following: 1) Mortgage has a significant positive impact on house prices in the short and long terms. Furthermore, Saudi employment has a significant positive effect on the prices of houses. However, the opposite result is for CPI, which significantly negatively impacts house prices; 2) there is a positive relationship between mortgages and Saudi’s real estate GDP in the short and the long run. Moreover, employment and investment positively impact GDP in the short and long run; and 3) Mortgage negatively impacts economic growth, while investment and CPI positively impact economic growth. This study fills the existing gaps by investigating the housing problem in Saudi Arabia and the effect of the mortgage system on oil-producing countries by analyzing variables that are directly and indirectly related to mortgages. Future studies may consider using other variables to examine their impact on the real estate market and economic growth if it is related to any other variables in direct or indirect ways.11 0Item Unknown ESSAYS ON FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT(Saudi Digital Library, 2023-11-20) Alalmaee, Hassan; Rewilak, Johan; Chaudhry, SajidThe impact of financial development on economic growth has been studied in the past few decades. However, the empirical findings range from having a positive effect on economic growth in early studies to no impact or even negative effect in the last decade. Therefore, this thesis contributes to the finance-growth nexus by re-examining the relationship using different dimensions of financial development, namely financial stability, financial crises, and financial structure. This thesis is comprised of three empirical chapters. The first empirical study examines the impact of natural disasters on banking stability. Given that the effects of natural disasters on banking stability differ across the level of economic development, this study focuses on these heterogeneous effects. We combine two different datasets. The first utilises bank-level data comprising 1,242 banks across 72 countries, and the second uses the natural disasters dataset provided by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). We estimate our models by employing a panel regression estimator with the bank and year-fixed effects. The results suggest that natural disasters significantly affect the distance-to-default (Z-score), which is our measure of banks’ stability, especially for middle-and low-income countries. The results also indicate that natural disasters adversely affect non-performing loans, return on assets, and capital ratios of banks. The second empirical study examines the impact of banking, currency and debt crises on economic growth and its volatility. Financial crises often have a devastating impact on living standards. However, there needs to be more evidence about their effects in Africa, a vastly underdeveloped region. We empirically estimate a growth equation using both fixed effects and System GMM estimations. Using data from 1970 to 2017 for 52 African countries, we find that only currency and debt crises affect economic growth negatively in Africa. On the other hand, banking crises are shown to have a statistically insignificant effect on growth in Africa. Currency crises may reduce economic growth in the long run by 1.19 percentage points, and debt crises are the most harmful, reducing long-run growth by three percentage points. The third empirical study investigates the relationship between financial structure and economic growth. There is inconclusive empirical evidence regarding the importance of financial structure and whether a market or bank-based financial system contributes to economic growth. Consequently, we contribute to the literature by re-examining the relationship based on a broader sample and more recent data. Our sample includes 84 countries and covers the period from 1960 to 2019. The results of our study indicate that the banking sector is no longer an essential source of growth promotion in the last two decades. Moreover, according to some of our analyses, economic growth is negatively impacted by the increased development of the banking sector. In contrast, from 2000 to 2019, the stock market consistently and significantly contributed to economic growth.20 0Item Unknown Essays in Economic Development and Political Empowerment(Saudi Digital Library, 2024-08) Shaiekh, Lama Tariq; Rogers, MelissaThis dissertation is composed of three unrelated chapters, all of which are on different topics. Chapter 1: T The Effect of Economic Freedom on Economic Growth: A Case Study of the Middle East Region. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of economic freedom on foreign direct investment inflow and economic growth to countries of the Middle East Chapter 2: Do the poor revolt? A study on Income and Political Freedom in the context of the Egyptian Revolution. The study revisits the income-political freedom connection using data from Egyptian nationals in 2008, The study investigates the relationship between an individual's income level and demand for democracy using an Ordered Logistic regression. Chapter 3: Women Empowerment and Its Impact on Economic Growth: A Study of Latin America and the Caribbean Region. This quantitative study investigated how empowering women helped address and improve economic challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean. A secondary purpose was to determine relationships between women’s empowerment and economic growth and to see the effects of any variables of interest on economic growth.32 0