Saudi Cultural Missions Theses & Dissertations
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Item Restricted Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Returns: Saudi Stock Market(University of Essex, 2024-09-11) Khaneen, Faisal; Yan, ChengThis study examines the impact of various macroeconomic factors on the Saudi stock market, specifically the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI), using data from February 2012 to April 2022. It also explores sectoral differences across 13 sectors. The key factors analysed are oil prices, the World Uncertainty Index (WUI), money supply (M2), exports, imports, SAIBOR, inflation, real effective exchange rates (REER), the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index, and the S&P 500 Index. The findings indicate that oil prices, money supply, and exports significantly boost TASI returns, highlighting the roles of oil revenues and economic liquidity. In contrast, global uncertainty and imports negatively impact TASI returns, reflecting investor risk aversion and the adverse effects of foreign goods reliance. Additionally, the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index positively influences TASI, showing the impact of global defense spending. Sectoral analysis reveals unique responses to these macroeconomic factors, which shows the need for sector-specific investment and policy strategies to enhance market stability and growth.10 0Item Restricted The firm-level impact of corporate governance mechanisms on firm performance of listed non-financial companies in Saudi Arabia.(universaty of Liverpool, 2024-09) Aljebreen, Sultan; Abuzeid, MostafaThere has been increased focus on desirable corporate governance practices linked with improved performance and firm stability. Therefore, this study sought to explore the influence of board factors as the determinants of the firm’s performance. Corporate governance mechanisms included board composition, audit committee features, and ownership, while profitability measured firm performance. The dissertation employed a quantitative research approach, and panel data was compiled from the Tadawul (Saudi Stock Exchange) for the period 2020-2023. Panel regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between corporate governance mechanisms and firm performance. The research results imply that the board of directors size has a significant positive influence on a firm’s performance, which could suggest that a large board, which in most cases differs in skills and experience, helps in developing strategic decisions that can enhance financial performance. On the other hand, CEO duality, meaning that the CEO is the same as the board chairman, was discovered as having a marginally negative influence on performance. This could be an indication of the problems with excessive concentration of power, hence diminishing the independence and efficacy of the board. Although other governance factors, including audit committee characteristics and ownership structure, were examined, they were not significantly linked to firm performance. Therefore, there may be a need for further studies to validate their influence on the relationship between corporate governance and financial performance in Saudi Arabia. Overall, the study offers significant insights to policymakers and corporate leaders in developing best practices for improving corporate governance in Saudi Arabia.22 0Item Restricted The Swatch Group Valuation report (Dissertation)(Queen Mary University of london, 2023-12-16) Alhelali, Ahmed; Larcher, LucaThis is a comprehensive valuation report on the Swatch Group Ltd. A predominant company in the watchmaking and jewelry industry that specializes in luxury and mid-range watches, the Swiss company has been in business since 1983 and has a presence worldwide. In this report the company will be evaluated for an investment decision on whether to buy or sell depending on the value of the stock in the next five years, through the forecasted value of the company, this value will be calculated using valuation techniques that use financial reporting available to investors. For evaluating the swatch group and after researching the company and exploring its historical financial data, the use of the discounted cash flow (DCF) model is chosen to evaluate the present value of the company which gives us an insight into weather the company can generate profits for an investment or not, the investment decision on whether to buy or sell the company will be supported by the DCF model, a sensitivity analysis which gives us more alternate scenarios on the present value of the company based on the cost of capital and the growth rate, the relative valuation of the company which compares certain ratios with other similar companies of similar financial metrics and work in the same industry. Right now, the group is publicly traded on the Swiss stock exchange at a share price of 235.40 Swiss francs (CHF) as of September 29, 2023, and evaluating the company gives us a share price of 259.62 CHF with a 10% premium to the current share price, with that the recommendation is to buy the shares or add more shares to an existing portfolio.15 0Item Restricted Dividends in Corporate Finance and Investment(Bangor University, 2023-08-31) Alqahtani, Muteb; Gwilym, Owain apDividend-centric portfolio investment strategies have gained prominence, particularly during economic downturns and uncertain times. This study explores the advantages of dividend-focused strategies, highlighting their predictability, risk mitigation, tax optimization, liquidity, strategic adaptability, competitive yields, and dependability. The predictability of dividend income, supported by consistent patterns of dividend disbursement, allows investors to anticipate and plan for income streams. Dividend stability is crucial for corporate reputation and investor perception, driving prudent stock selection based on historical dividend behavior. Factors like the Fama & French model further enhance stock selection processes, ensuring reliable income amidst market fluctuations. Tax efficiency is a critical consideration, with certain regions offering tax exemptions on dividend income, making dividend-paying stocks attractive for tax-conscious investors. Despite economic uncertainties, dividend investing remains a cornerstone for reliable income and efficient asset allocation. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted corporate dividend policies, causing a decline in dividends, particularly affecting larger corporations and state-owned enterprises. However, some firms maintained or even increased dividends, showcasing the complexity of market responses during crises. The concepts of the bird-in-hand, dividend signaling, and dividend irrelevance hypotheses provide contrasting viewpoints on the link between dividends and firm value. While dividend investing offers numerous advantages, it is important to acknowledge its limitations, such as vulnerability to market fluctuations. Geographic variances strongly impact the effectiveness of dividend-based strategies, highlighting the need for diversification and adaptation to local market conditions. Overall, dividend-focused strategies offer a compelling approach in financial markets, providing stability and potential for competitive returns, amidst uncertainties and fluctuations.42 0Item Restricted Behavioural Finance.(Bangor University, 2023-08-31) Alqahtani, Muteb; He, HeatherThis research delves into the impact of social media, news media, and AI chatbots on retail investing, focusing on how these factors influence financial decisions. The study is divided into three main sections. The first section examines the influence of social interactions on investment decisions, emphasizing information sharing, peer attention, social learning, and herd mentality. The second section explores the impact of media on individual investors and financial markets, highlighting the effects of media optimism and pessimism on equity markets. The final section critically evaluates these effects and provides insights into the world of retail investment, emphasizing the power of media in shaping investors' perceptions and market behavior. Overall, this analysis aims to deepen our understanding of the complexities of the investment landscape in the context of social and media influences.25 0Item Restricted Financial Technology(Bangor University, 2023-08-31) Alqahtani, Muteb; Gwilym, Owain apThe integration of technology into finance has given rise to fintech, revolutionizing the financial services industry. This paper examines two notable fintech companies, Mercury and Qonto, focusing on their business models, innovations, and competitive landscapes. Mercury and Qonto exemplify fintech by leveraging technology to provide innovative financial solutions to startups, freelancers, and SMEs. They have disrupted traditional banking by offering mobile banking services, streamlined processes, and tailored products. Despite their successes, both companies face challenges such as regulatory scrutiny, competition, and limitations in product offerings. Their future success depends on addressing these challenges and continuing to innovate in the dynamic fintech landscape.35 0Item Restricted The role of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) in financial markets(Bangor University, 2023-08-31) Alqahtani, Muteb; Khoo, Shee YeeThis report examines the impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors on the sovereign credit rating system using statistical modeling. Traditionally, credit rating models focused on macroeconomic factors, but there's a growing recognition of the importance of ESG factors in creditworthiness assessment. Data from 10 countries, including ESG and macroeconomic variables, were analyzed using a multivariate regression model. The results show that ESG factors have a significant effect on the credit rating system, with ESG variables enhancing the accuracy of the rating model. The findings support the need for credit rating agencies to incorporate ESG factors into their assessment frameworks. This research provides valuable insights for policymakers and investors in evaluating sovereign debt sustainability.57 0Item Restricted Telefonica Investment Recommendation(Queen Mary University of London, 2023-10-23) Alsuhaibani, Ibrahim; Faria, GoncaloThis dissertation aimed to conduct an equity valuation report on Telefonica, a Spanish based leading telecommunication operator. This was done by utilizing the discounted cash flow model, an intrinsic valuation method, to forecast Telefonica’s cash flows for the next 10 years until 2033, and then discount them back to the present value through the use of a weighted average cost of capital of 6.32% and growth of 3%. The DCF model indicated that Telefonica’s stock is undervalued by 33% when compared to Telefonica’s share price as of 30/06/2023, which amounted to 3.72 EUR. Additionally, relative valuation was also carried out through the use of three multiples: Price/Earnings, Price/Book, and Enterprise Value / Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization. The results further supported our DCF findings, in which the use of both the P/E and P/B multiples resulted in Telefonica being undervalued. Moreover, sensitivity analysis of the enterprise value and the target price was conducted. Overall, the report finds that Telefonica is undervalued. Thus, the investment recommendation is BUY.16 0Item Restricted Predicting Volatility for Cryptocurrencies: A Comparison in Using GARCH Models vs. Machine Learning LSTM Models(Saudi Digital Library, 2023-09-22) Bugis, Tala; Song, XiaojingFinancial researchers and traders seeking trustworthy forecasting tools have a formidable barrier in cryptocurrency markets, which are volatile and decentralised. This study explores cryptocurrency price volatility prediction and provides insights into digital asset-specific models and methods. The issue is that bitcoin markets defy predictability. These complex patterns are decoded using GARCH, recurrent neural networks, and hybrid models. The significant findings emphasise customised solutions. Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BI-LSTM) models with 1D convolutional layers outperformed standard models in predicting Binance Coin (BNB) and Ripple (XRP) volatility due to their ability to capture complicated temporal connections. With asymmetric reactions, Ethereum's (ETH) volatility required unique approaches like the GRJ-GARCH model. This study concludes that the cryptocurrency ecosystem is complex and requires specialised solutions for each digital asset. Our findings further support the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which emphasises market efficiency in forecasting models. Future research and applications must incorporate robustness testing, regulatory compliance, and external factor integration as cryptocurrency marketplaces mature. Further research into hybrid models that combine GARCH and LSTM strengths is promising. This analysis helps us predict bitcoin volatility and shows how dynamic cryptocurrency markets are. Recognising their distinct traits and adapting forecasting models allows us to leverage the predictive potential needed in this continuously changing market.36 0Item Restricted Estimating Oil Price ’Value at Risk’ Modelling(Saudi Digital Library, 2023-12-04) Alshehri, Rayan; Hardy, ThomasThis paper proposes the utilization of Value at Risk (VaR) for the quantification of oil price risk. VaR offers an estimate of the maximum potential change in oil prices associated with a certain likelihood level, and serves as a tool for shaping risk management strategies. We examine three methods for calculating VaR: the conventional historical simulation approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) method, introduced in this paper, and the variance-covariance method employing autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models for forecasts. In addition, we have done literature reviews on this topic, and oil and stock prices asymmetric volatility co-currently with the time of the estimation period. The findings of the analysis indicate that the HSAF methodology offers a versatile approach to VaR quantification. It adeptly aligns with the continuous movements of oil prices and facilitates efficient risk assessment.27 0