Uncertainty and Disruption in Global Strategic Investment

Abstract

ABSTRACT The aim of this thesis is to explore uncertainty and disruptive innovation in global advanced manufacturing strategic investment. It reflects on the rising globalisation and technological disruption of manufacturing. The research also explores the issue of uncertainty and uncertain event that has become increasingly significant in financial, economic and geopolitics, governance of companies and nations. in addition to growing concern about the consequences of uncertainty and uncertain events’ impact. However, while increasing progress has been made in the measurement and analysis of uncertainty, there appears to be little evidence for systematic uncertainty mapping and a positive reaction towards uncertain times, especially for uncertainty associated with geopolitics, economic, and technology in global manufacturing. Uncertainty is defined in this research as: The occurrence of an external or/and internal event or multiple events at a point in time that had a severe emotional, physical, financial or/and economic cost attach to it, that can be negative or positive to different things at the same point in time. Investment uncertainty practices have evolved as uncertainty analyses. However, it can be argued that the characteristics and structures of uncertainty in global advanced manufacturing investment do not to fit into such a category, as uncertainty behaves in a completely different manner than risk. The need to actively navigate uncertainty tends to be lost upon embracing complicated financial risk analysis methods in the investment of industrial projects. The approach adopted here is a detailed case study investigation of global industrial business cross-sections at several different levels of maturity and industry to observe current practices, identify common principles and synthesise systematic approaches to uncertainty navigation. Therefore, field case studies were conducted against the background of existing literature and a detailed common practice review of global advanced manufacturing strategic investment. The research is a qualitative study of existing phenomena through case studies in order to detect changes and to grew the existing knowledge to understand uncertainty, disruptive innovation and global advanced manufacturing strategic investment. The entire research is separated into three stages. The first stage is composed of the research identification and theoretical exploration and conceptualisation, the second stage is the data collection via the case study method, and the third stage is the analysis of the data and the outcomes of the research. This research has key findings: i) the changeable cycle of uncertainty mapping; ii) positive and negative uncertainty cycles; iii) high-level assets; iv) global and local cost structures; v) soft and hard capabilities; vi) oligopoly and oligopsony effects and the balance strategy versus the global market; vii) company and industry life cycles; viii) planning for a life cycle ending ‘sand-to-sand’ design; and ix) timing, the window of time and human emotional stamina.