Risk Assessment and People Management in the One Billion Trees Project

Abstract

This report critically examines the integration of risk assessment and people management strategies within Mongolia’s One Billion Trees Project, a large-scale afforestation initiative launched to combat climate change. It explores how cultural dimensions, leadership approaches, and change management frameworks influence project success. Drawing on Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions Theory, the report analyzes the cultural factors that shape stakeholder engagement and organizational behavior. Leadership models, particularly transformational and situational leadership, are evaluated for their effectiveness in mobilizing teams and communities. Change management is assessed using Kurt Lewin’s and Kotter’s frameworks to support sustainable behavioral shifts. A comprehensive Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) and Risk Register are developed to identify and evaluate environmental, operational, financial, political, and reputational risks. Mitigation strategies are proposed based on Probability-Impact (P*I) scoring. The findings emphasize the importance of adaptive leadership, culturally aware stakeholder engagement, and structured risk management in ensuring the long-term success and resilience of afforestation projects.