A Comparative Assessment of Intercity Transport Technologies, with a Saudi Arabian Case Study

Abstract

With increasing urbanization worldwide, passenger demand for inter-urban travel has grown and the development of new transport technologies is needed, such as High-Speed Rail (HSR), Magnetic Levitation (Maglev) and Hyperloop. This thesis undertakes a comparative assessment of these three intercity transport technologies in terms of their service characteristics. The aim is to identify the most suitable transport mode with the lowest average social and operator cost for an identified corridor under the level of demand that is forecast. The comparative assessment method comprises four models. The first is the Total Social Cost Model (TSCM), which focuses on calculating the social and financial costs according to the vehicle characteristics and unit costs of each of the transport technologies studied. It includes operator cost, user cost, external cost and, hence, social cost and average social cost. Second, a Demand Forecast Model (DFM) is developed to forecast travel demand for HSR flows. This model includes parameters such as the population along the corridor, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, generalized journey time, percentage of unemployment and number of years since the lines opened. The third model is a Stated Preference Model (SPM) to examine the choice of Hyperloop over other modes of transport and to gain an understanding of how decisions are made when people are faced with several transport alternatives. The fourth is the Elasticity of Demand Model (EDM) to determine existing mode flows in terms of generalized journey time, including by conventional rail, air, car and bus. The Riyadh–Dammam corridor in Saudi Arabia is used as a case study to apply the comparative assessment method proposed by this thesis to examine High Speed Ground Transportation (HSGT). The aims are to determine the most suitable transport modes in terms of level of service and total social and operator costs, and to forecast passenger demand. In this case study, Hyperloop appears to be the best next-generation HSGT, since it has the lowest average social cost (ASC) of €67.70 per passenger in 2030, compared to €103.30 for HSR and €100.20 for Maglev due to its lower capacity, which leads to a high hourly service frequency.