Energy Transition Policies and Their Impact on Saudi Arabia

Abstract

This dissertation answers how Saudi Arabia, an oil-dependent economy, is tackling the energy transition. Given Saudi Arabia’s economy and its position in the global energy markets, it is crucial to analyse its status in the energy transition. Specifically, this research addresses three research sub-questions concerning: the external and internal drivers that have pushed Saudi Arabia to transform, the leading entity driving the energy transition in Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia’s progression in the energy transition relative to other oil-producing economies, particularly the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Norway. Qualitative and quantitative methods are used: a Multi-Level Perspective framework is analysed, six interviews with energy stakeholders are conducted, and an Energy Transition Advancement Index (ETAI) is developed, in which two main sub-indexes are created with 39 dimensions.

The research results show that eight drivers have pushed Saudi Arabia to transition: oil price volatility, global political and environmental pressure, advancement of renewable energy manufacturing, additional fiscal revenue derived from maximising oil exports, growth of domestic energy demand, the fiscal impact of fossil fuel subsidies, successful pilot renewable energy projects, and extensive minerals exploration. Second, the Saudi Ministry of Energy leads the energy transition. Furthermore, the results reveal that the government adopted a state-led energy transition approach where the government sets the policy instruments and initiatives. Lastly, Saudi Arabia lags behind the UAE and Norway in the ETAI. In 2023, Saudi Arabia scored 49.66 out of 100, while the UAE and Norway scored 64.33 and 70.57, respectively. The ETAI reveals that Saudi Arabia has the competence to transition, as indicated by the continuous improvement in the capability sub-index, which increased from 39.75 in 1990 to 57.33 in 2023. However, not enough steps have been taken to transition, as the performance sub-index declined from 48.84 in 1990 to 38.54 in 2023. The study recommends gradually phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, establishing Public-Private Partnerships in all low-carbon investments, enhancing private sector participation, and extending the value chain of the petrochemical industries.