Horizon Scanning: Futurology

Abstract

BMT's service covers many products and consulting services, with business spread across the globe, thus possessing a solid market position. However, it simultaneously faces inherent risks tackled through scenario planning. BMT faces a problem which is a slow and often inconsistent futurology process. The aim is to optimise this practice, offering a faster and more consistent solution.

Futurology is the activity of overlooking the future, in efforts to prepare for dynamic changes. Scenario planning is a futurology tool that creates pictures of current trends to predict future states. Academic scenario planning frameworks can be divided into two areas: those that base scenarios on key drivers and those that don’t. The trade-off between them is consistent, so the team has incorporated ideologies from both types within the proposed framework. Findings from existing frameworks showed that two of the best processes are Shell and the UK Gov. toolkit. Therefore, factors from both are integrated into the proposed framework.

The proposed framework has been divided into three main areas, enabling a more targeted and methodical approach, and ensuring that all relevant factors are considered. Challenge assessment pairs technology with potential challenges. The pair analysis evaluates whether a pair is feasible to enter the next stage, which saves time as it eliminates unnecessary items. Finally, devising scenarios serves as the scenario-building stage.

1. Challenge assessment a. SCAMPER: a creativity tool that guides the critical analysis of technology. b. Sector tree: aids in predicting technology transformation. c. Delphi: synthesizes expert opinions through iterative rounds of questionnaires.

2. Pair analysis: utilises a scoring table to evaluate pairs.

3. Devising scenarios a. Cross-Impact method: a comprehensive and structured tool, however the lacking creativity and time-efficiency. b. 4 Questions: the intermediate choice regarding tool trade-off. c. Scenario archetypes: a creative and time efficient tool, however lacking comprehensiveness.

However, upon usage, it was discovered that the process was still quite slow. Henceforth, the process was fully digitalised, to decrease time and increase engagement. This resulted in two deliverables: an explanatory word handbook and a digital guidebook.

This proposal has proven to save 50% of BMT’s time during their scenario planning process while producing similar/better results. Moreover, this framework is expected to maximise engagement and consistency, optimising decision-making.