The economic viability of blue hydrogen production: Forecasting Saudi production cost of blue hydrogen.

Abstract

As global energy demands are surging and concerns over environmental sustainability intensify, the hydrogen emerges as a promising solution towards clean energy production and storage. This dissertation delves into the economic viability of blue hydrogen production in Saudi Arabia with the focus of the forecasting of production costs. By encompassing the evaluation of various hydrogen types, blue hydrogen applications, and an estimation of production costs according to historical feedstock prices. The literature review scrutinizes different hydrogen types with their economic feasibility in the context of blue hydrogen production. Consideration of cost competitiveness, environmental impact, and scalability lays the groundwork forward to insights. Furthermore, the examination of blue hydrogen's applications elucidates industries poised to benefit from future possible investments in this energy carrier, while also diving into potential challenges and opportunities. Employing a meticulous methodology, forecasting the production cost of Saudi blue hydrogen, placing particular emphasis on feedstock prices. By utilizing ARMA model to leverage forecasted natural gas prices, thereby shedding light on the relationship between feedstock costs and hydrogen production expenses. The results and recommendations have strategic insights and actionable suggestions. By comparing decisions made at the oil and gas industry, this dissertation positions itself at the intersection of industry growth stages. The findings offer suggestion for a transition from the emerging phase to the mature phase in early growth market, with an emphasis on cost-saving strategies and optimizing resource. A pivotal finding emerges in understanding the influence of natural gas prices on production costs of Saudi Aribia. The dissertation implies the significance of efficiently managing feedstock prices and subsidy costs. Implications extend to both national and international contexts as well, particularly in steering the export decision concern of blue hydrogen and blue ammonia. This dissertation holds significant relevance for particularly energy economists in Saudi Arabia, providing them with a nuanced understanding of the economic dynamics that are shaping the production and export of blue hydrogen that is by the insights from the dissertation into the interplay of feedstock prices, industry growth stages, and strategic decision-making, this dissertation contributes to a more informed energy landscape.