The potential Implications of Dietary Change on Human Nutrition, Diet-related Environmental Footprints, and Food Affordability in Malawi Using a Dietary Scenarios Analysis

Abstract

Current diets in developed countries are associated with high environmental footprints, as they tend to be high in energy and animal-based foods (Tilman and Clark, 2014). Further, a growing body of research has demonstrated the potentiality for mitigation of environmental impacts by shifting to sustainable diets (Jarmul et al., 2020; Laine et al., 2021). There is a need, though, to ascertain, whether such shifts from current diets to healthy and sustainable diets will necessarily lead to environmental benefits in low-income countries, such as Malawi. Therefore, the current research aims to assess the potential Implications of dietary change on human nutrition, diet- related environmental footprints. The study aims are achieved by a comprehensive analysis using secondary data to investigate the nutritional environmental effect associated with various dietary scenarios and also to assess the affordability of such scenarios and the net nutrient supply in Malawi as a share of the total dietary requirements to achieve a balanced and healthy diet. The study revealed that the transition towards a sustainable EAT-lancet diet, a healthy diet following the WHO guidelines, and the HSMD scenario is projected to increase the environmental footprint by 190%, 545%, and 167%, respectively; as well as increase the cost by 48%, 77%, and 65%, respectively. However, shifting towards alternative diets will bring health benefits, as it is projected to increase the daily amounts of macro- and micro-nutrient consumption compared with the current diet. Nevertheless, the results illustrate that the country experiences an inadequate supply of macronutrients and micronutrients to meet dietary recommendations. This investigation provided insight into environmental and nutritional impacts associated with the transition toward sustainable and healthy diets in Malawi. Importantly, the synergy between these health, environmental, and economic dimensions is critical to the achievement of a healthy and sustainable diet that does not have to be costly and harmful to the environment. Therefore, this emphasises the need for strategies that can increase nutrient intake, while reducing the embodied environmental impacts of food items. Combined, these quantitative findings are intended to assist Malawian policymakers in identifying critical areas for food system improvement. The analysis also highlights the need to consider multiple indicators in the assessment of the sustainability of food systems.