Greening the Desert: Evaluating Saudi Arabia’s Afforestation and Desertification Control Strategies for Enhancing Climate Resilience

Abstract

Saudi Arabia’s hyper-arid environment faces severe land degradation, water scarcity, and rising temperatures. In response, Vision 2030 launched the Saudi Green Initiative (SGI) in 2021, pledging to plant 10 billion trees, restore 40 million hectares of degraded land, and protect 30 % of terrestrial and marine areas by 2030. This dissertation evaluates how SGI’s afforestation and desertification control strategies contribute to long-term climate resilience. Guided by resilience theory and political ecology, the study employs three methods: (1) qualitative policy document analysis of Vision 2030 and SGI reports, (2) quantitative spatial mapping of future heat-stress zones using NASA GDDP-CMIP6 data overlaid with afforestation sites, and (3) ecological assessment of selected tree species’ drought, salinity, and temperature tolerances. Findings show that afforestation zones are strategically placed in climatically vulnerable yet ecologically viable areas, balancing feasibility and adaptation intent. Species selection follows ecological zoning, favouring drought- and salt-tolerant native trees. Institutional integration under Vision 2030 and SGI’s whole-of-government structure provide strong governance, funding, and public engagement through national campaigns and volunteer programs. However, critical challenges include water-resource constraints, limited transparency on site-selection criteria, and the absence of post-planting survival data. Community participation is visible but lacks formal decision-making roles. While SGI aligns with international frameworks and advances Saudi Arabia’s environmental profile, its long-term success depends on adaptive management, robust monitoring, and inclusive governance. The dissertation concludes that SGI offers a promising model for desert afforestation when ecological realism, socio-political inclusion, and resource planning converge, but sustaining resilience will require ongoing evaluation and policy refinement.