How has Saudi Arabia maintained political stability, monarchical survival and curtailed the traditional patronage system while implementing economic and social reforms under Vision 2030?

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the impact of Saudi Vision 2030's comprehensive socio-economic reforms on the political stability and monarchical survival of Saudi Arabia. By examining specific economic and social reforms, implemented since 2016, it focuses on how these changes have contributed to the monarchy’s resilience. Also, it examines the reforming and curtailment of the traditional patronage system, highlighting how through Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has developed an updated social contract. Key economic reforms analysed include the introduction of VAT, deregulation of oil and gas prices and the increase in renewable energy. Social reforms include youth unemployment, female labour force participation and housing subsidies. This study employs a qualitative approach, utilising process-tracing to analyse key data from 2016 to early 2024, including GDP growth, labour force participation, unemployment rates and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), supplemented by government documents, to measure the progress, effectiveness and implementation levels of the reforms. The findings reveal that the economic and social reforms under Vision 2030 have mitigated potential political instability through economic diversification, job creation for women and youth and the strategic balancing of austerity measures with compensatory programs. By aligning social reforms with societal expectations and addressing public concerns, the government has demonstrated its capacity to meet modern demands lessening potential for unrest. Furthermore, this study suggests that these reforms, despite curtailing the traditional patronage system, have reinforced the monarchy’s legitimacy. The concept of monarchical survival is used to demonstrate how Saudi’s monarchy has successfully navigated turbulent political, economic and social challenges, ensuring its continued survival in a rapidly changing landscape.