A Conceptual Hybrid Modelling and Simulation Framework for Behavioural Analysis in Complex Systems

Abstract

Modelling and simulation (M&S) studies are used to gain insights into different systems of interest and assist decision-makers. The use of M&S for behavioural analysis seeks to understand and explore the behaviour of individuals and how they react to certain systemic interventions. According to the literature, there is a lack of studies that focus on models incorporating human factors. Therefore, this study aims to develop a conceptual M&S framework for behavioural analysis that incorporates human behaviour and the underlying influencing factors. A hybrid M&S framework that relies on qualitative and quantitative elements to incorporate human behavioural aspects when modelling healthcare systems is proposed. Such a framework could aid the development of models that are likely to be a better representation of the system under scrutiny. The developed framework is composed of multiple phases, and each phase is unique in addressing specific requirements. The conceptual framework is aimed to help healthcare modellers to invoke behavioural analysis from the start by defining the characteristics of studied problems. In addition, it has the capacity to guide modellers to incorporate human actions in complex healthcare settings and benefits from combining a soft OR method with a simulation technique to ease system complexities and capture real-world situations more accurately. The conceptual framework is evaluated through existing case studies in a healthcare context, which are then extended to incorporate human behavioural factors. The lessons learned from the evaluations were used to make further amendments, leading to the final conceptual framework. This work contributes to the literature on M&S for behavioural analysis, extending the applicability of soft OR methods in hybrid simulation studies to analyse human behaviour and address the complexity and uncertainty of healthcare systems.