Structural Breaks in Oil–Equity and Real Estate Dynamics: Evidence from Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 Reforms

Abstract

This dissertation investigates how Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms have reshaped the relationship between Brent crude oil prices and the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI). Using data from 2007–2025, I apply a t-DCC-GARCH framework with residualisation to control for global equity effects and COVID-19 shocks, alongside Bai–Perron break detection to identify structural shifts. The results show that oil–TASI correlations have declined since 2016, indicating reduced oil dependence, while real estate has emerged as a growing determinant of equity dynamics. Previous studies either establish a long-run oil-TASI relationship or examine Vision 2030’s impact on macroeconomic variables and stock performance. This dissertation fills the gap by tracing how the oil–TASI relationship itself has evolved over time in the context of Vision 2030, offering insights into shifting market drivers and their implications for diversification, strategy, and policy.