The Impact of an Improved Heat Representation in Energy System Models on National Decarbonization Scenarios.

Abstract

To analyze the impact of an improved representation of the heat sector in energy system models on the investment decisions in these models, we used the IESA-Opt cost minimization model for the Netherlands energy system focusing on the changes in heat technologies, energy mix for the heat demand, emissions, and total system costs. The result of this study shows that improving the representation of the heat sector in IESA opt reduces the national system costs by 400 million € (equal to a 0.4% reduction of the national system costs) in the improved scenario compared with the base scenario for 2050. For the scenarios without natural gas in the heat sector, the national system cost reduced by 1.4 billion € (equal to a 1.2% reduction of the national system costs) in the improved scenario compared with the base scenario for 2050. In addition, improving the heat sector in the IESA Opt model changed the choice of heat technologies and energy mix of the energy system for the 2050 scenarios. In conclusion, under the specific assumptions of this study, adding more heat storage options and heat networks for the industry sector can reduce the total system cost and make the Dutch energy system more independent from energy imports in 2050.