Modelling Emergency Attendances and Waiting Times in Scotland

Abstract

Background and Aims: Emergency Departments (EDs) in Scotland face significant challenges due to fluctuating patient loads and increased waiting times in recent years. This research aims to analyse and predict total attendances and waiting times in Emergency Departments in Scotland. The purpose is to offer insightful analysis, modelling, and predictions to Public Health Scotland, enhancing the efficiency of emergency healthcare services. Data: The analysis is based on two datasets provided by Public Health Scotland: the monthly statistics dataset and the weekly statistics dataset. Method: We developed four Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to predict the two main outcomes: the number of attendances in Emergency Departments and the number of attendances categorized by waiting times (within 4 hours and over 4 hours). GAMs were chosen for their ability to model complex, non-linear relationships effectively by incorporating temporal and geographical factors.