Advances in Artificial Intelligence for Energy Forecasting and Performance Management in Buildings

Abstract

Accurate energy forecasting is essential for intelligent building management, supporting operational optimisation, strategic planning, and demand-side flexibility. However, existing forecasting methods often struggle to remain accurate across multiple time horizons and to generalise across different building types with limited data. This thesis addresses these challenges by developing a modular modelling framework that advances both multi-horizon forecasting and cross-building adaptability. The first contribution is a hybrid forecasting model (SVR → XGBoost → LSTM) designed to deliver stable prediction performance across four horizons: 24 hours, one week, one month, and one year. The hybrid design leverages the complementary strengths of its components SVR for noise reduction, XGBoost for nonlinear feature learning, and LSTM for long-range temporal modelling resulting in improved robustness and generalisation compared with single-model approaches. The second contribution introduces a deep hybrid model (CNN → GRU → LSTM) within a transfer learning framework. Pretrained on multi-building datasets and fine-tuned using limited data from new buildings, this approach enhances cross-domain adaptability while reducing training time and data requirements, demonstrating the practical value of transfer learning for scalable energy forecasting. A third contribution integrates statistical peak detection to support the identification of high- demand events, enabling forecasting outputs to inform grid-interactive building operations. Rigorous evaluation including multi-metric assessment, residual diagnostics, ablation testing, and statistical significance analysis confirms the reliability and robustness of the proposed models. Overall, the thesis provides methodological and empirical advances that strengthen data-driven building energy management. The results show that hybridisation and transfer learning, when carefully designed, can enhance accuracy, stability, and generalisation, offering a scalable pathway toward more efficient and sustainable smart building operations.