Strategic Analysis of a Low-Carbon and Cost-Effective Power System in Saudi Arabia by 2030

Abstract

Saudi Arabia is undergoing transformative changes in its power sector as part of its broader Vision 2030 agenda, presenting a unique opportunity to reshape its energy landscape. With a national target of achieving 50% electricity generation from renewable sources by 2030, the Kingdom is not only rethinking its energy mix but also actively investing in innovations that support decarbonization and long-term cost-effectiveness. These shifts open up strategic opportunities to design a modern power system that aligns with both national ambitions and global climate responsibilities. This dissertation presents a comprehensive strategic analysis of Saudi Arabia’s pathway to a low-carbon and economically viable power grid by 2030. It begins with an in-depth review of the Kingdom’s power sector development, historical emissions, and policy targets under Vision 2030. The study then explores the country’s renewable energy potential, focusing on solar and wind resources, while also assessing the role of emerging low-carbon technologies, such as hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), and large-scale energy storage systems. To evaluate system performance and identify the most viable future grid configurations, the project employs PyPSA (Python for Power System Analysis), an open-source modelling framework, to simulate generation scenarios, optimize the energy mix, and analyse trade-offs between cost and emissions. Through this modelling effort, the study estimates the Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) across technologies and assesses the overall system’s carbon impact, offering insights into the most strategic and practical pathways forward. Ultimately, this work aims to provide actionable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders on how to structure Saudi Arabia’s future power system in a way that balances energy security, affordability, and sustainability.