Strategic Hedging in Saudi Arabia Foreign Relations Under MbS

Abstract

This thesis applies hedging theory to analyse Saudi Arabian foreign relations under the leadership of Mohammed bin Salman al Saud (“MbS”). Hedging is a risk management strategy which seeks to offset risk by diversifying relations and developing fallback options, while not picking sides in great power confrontations. This strategic approach is particularly suited to an international system where the balance of power is shifting from a unipolar to a multipolar order, given the possibilities for multi-alignment that arise. This thesis therefore details how, in face of the US retrenchment from the Middle East and the move to a more multipolar order that the rise of China and other secondary powers such as Russia has precipitated, Saudi Arabia has increasingly adopted a hedging strategy, which seeks to offset the risks of US withdrawal by cultivating back-up options, while maximising the economic benefits of China’s rise. At the same time, Saudi Arabia still needs to cooperate with the US in the security sphere, as China cannot provide the same kind of security umbrella that Washington offers. The thesis argues that this kind of “soft” balancing is compatible with a hedging strategy, with the Saudi case therefore providing important insights which can contribute to the debate about this aspect of hedging in particular, as well as discussions about the theory more generally.