Political Economy of Diversification: To What Extent Does Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 Foster the Transition to a Post-Rentier Economy?

Abstract

This dissertation examines the transformation of Saudi Arabia’s economy under Vision 2030, focusing on its implications for Rentier State theory. The study aims to reassess the explanatory power of the Rentier State framework in light of recent economic diversification efforts and to explore how it can be enhanced through engagement with Developmental State theory. Drawing on both theories, a new theoretical framework is proposed to account for evolving dynamics in rentier economies within the global political economy. This analysis links Vision 2030’s strategic objectives to the factors of production to assess structural change. Methodologically, the study adopts a qualitative approach supported by quantitative secondary data to examine economic, political, and social dimensions of transformation. Findings suggest that Saudi Arabia is transitioning from a late rentier to a post-rentier stage, challenging the traditional assumptions of Rentier State theory. The study argues for a theoretical shift that integrates developmental perspectives to reflect institutional adaptation, state-led industrial policy, and long-term investment strategies. This research contributes to the literature on rentierism and developmentalism by proposing an updated framework for analysing state transformation in resource-dependent economies. It recommends a stronger focus on economic production factors in future rentier state analyses.