Sharper Swords, Tougher Shields The Impact of GenAI on the Offensive-Defensive Balance in Cyberspace

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the relative advantages of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) to cyber defensive and offensive operations. It examines how state and non-state actors can utilise GenAI, arguing that while GenAI can significantly enhance both offensive and defensive cyber operations, the extent of these benefits is determined by four interrelated factors: geostrategic priorities, economic resources, regulatory frameworks, and organisational capabilities. These factors collectively shape the cyber offensive-defensive balance, a central concept in this study for understanding GenAI's impact on cyber operations. The research follows a literature-based methodology guided by frameworks such as the NIST Cybersecurity Framework 2.0 and the Cyber Kill Chain. The dissertation is structured into three chapters: the evolution of GenAI in cybersecurity, an analysis of strategic debates and the offensive-defensive balance and an exploration of the factors shaping this balance. The findings provide valuable insights for maintaining cybersecurity in the GenAI era.