Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in Qassim Region
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Date
2019
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Publisher
Saudi Digital Library
Abstract
Hydraulic and environmental designs are directly related to runoff which is dependent on rainfall
in a region. Any change in environmental and climatic conditions may affect the hydraulic designs.
The main goal of thesis is to model the changing behavior in rainfall and to investigate its impact
on runoff in Qassim Region. Long term simulations for rainfall have been made using three
different models; Global Climate Models (GCM) for most appropriate scenarios, Regional Climate
Models (RCM) and data driven models. Firstly, the GCM model output (predicted rainfall) was
generated, and then statistical downscaling technique was used to arrive at results for rainfall
change in Qassim Region. Statistical method has been applied for downscaling the results from
model to interpolate rainfall changes for Qassim. The results of GCM have been compared with
those obtained from the RCM model. For planning of water resources, several scenarios are
required to be constructed and tested. So long term predictions of rainfall using data driven models
has also been included in the thesis to provide an extra option for building water-resourcesplanning-scenarios. Three types of modelling on the bases of Artificial-Neural-Networks (ANN)
have been applied. Runoff has been predicted by Rational Method, Watershed Modelling System
(WMS) and Hydrologic-Engineering-Centre Hydrologic-Modelling-System (HEC - HMS).
Finally, the impact of any change in precipitation on runoff has been estimated. Most of the
Rainfall, temperature and geographical data was obtained from the General-Authority of
Meteorology and Environmental-Protection-Riyadh. Some help regarding data collection and
processing was taken from local authorities of Qassim. Geomorphological parameters of models
were estimated by Geographical-Information-System “GIS” and Digital-Elevation-Model
“DEM”. It is observed that climatic changes have significant impact on runoff in the Qassim
Region.