Predicting the Appearance of Comets from Earth and Spacecraft
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Date
2024-07-22
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University College London
Abstract
This study explores the dynamics of comets with the primary aim of enhancing predictive models for comet appearances as observed from Earth, supporting the preparation for future missions like the European Space Agency's Comet Interceptor, set to launch in 2029. Focusing on the recent observations of comets NEOWISE and McNaught, the research refines simulation tools to accurately forecast the trajectories and visual characteristics of these celestial bodies. These improved simulations are rigorously validated against actual images of the comets to ensure the accuracy of the predictions. Additionally, the validated models are used to reproduce the appearances of historical comets, specifically Comet Donati of 1858 and the Great Comet of 1744, enabling comparisons with existing archival drawings. This approach not only aids in planning and optimizing future comet missions but also enhances our understanding of the environmental forces affecting comets in space. The study concludes by discussing the limitations inherent in the simulation processes, critically evaluating the factors that may impact the accuracy of these comet predictions. This research highlights the importance of high-fidelity simulations in advancing our comprehension of cometary behaviour and enriching public and educational engagement with astronomical phenomena.
Description
This thesis focuses on enhancing predictive models for the appearance of comets, supporting astronomical observations and missions such as ESA’s Comet Interceptor, launching in 2029. It refines and adapts simulation tools to forecast comet trajectories and visual characteristics, validated against historical data and images. The work emphasizes recreating historical comet appearances, such as Comet Donati (1858) and the Great Comet of 1744, using reverse engineering of archival records. The simulations integrate software advancements, address limitations in current astronomical tools, and adapt for spacecraft perspectives. This research underscores the importance of high-fidelity modeling for understanding comet dynamics and planning future observational missions, contributing significantly to both scientific and public engagement with celestial phenomena.
Keywords
Comet prediction, comet trajectories, dust tail dynamics, Finson-Probstein model, historical comet appearances, Comet Interceptor mission, comet simulation tools, orbital mechanics, solar wind interactions, cometary dust tails, space mission planning, temporal mapping, Comet NEOWISE, Comet McNaught, ESA missions, astronomical simulations, celestial mechanics, comet visualization, stellar background modeling, planetary science., Comet morphology, comet nucleus activity, gravitational interactions, Lorentz force, Poynting-Robertson drag, solar radiation pressure, cometary coma, cometary tails, comet observation techniques, spacecraft navigation, heliocentric orbit analysis, comet flybys, computational astrophysics, comet dust particle trajectories, cometary evolution, comet physics, stellar environment modeling, heliospheric current sheet, solar system formation, comet tail imaging, archival comet records, space science simulations, comet sample-return missions, interplanetary dust dynamics, high-fidelity simulation models, comet activity prediction, comet tail curvature, astrophysical visualization tools, interstellar dust analysis, planetary defense strategies.
Citation
Alminhali, M. (2024). Predicting the Appearance of Comets from Earth and Spacecraft (MSc thesis). Department of Space and Climate Physics, University College London.