التحليل المكاني للطاقة الكهربائية في واحة الأحساء والآفاق المستقبلية لتطويرها
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Date
2023
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Saudi Digital Library
Abstract
تتطلب إدارة البيئة الحضرية تحقيق التوازن المكاني لضمان استدامة التكامل والتفاعل بين عناصرها، وعليه تلخصت مشكلة الدراسة، حيث تشهد واحة الأحساء تطورات سريعة ومتغيرة في النواحي الديموغرافية والمساحية والاقتصادية، وتضم ما يقدر بـ (89) من التجمعات السكانية بين مدن أو قرى، وتتباين في الحجم والتوزيع، كما يمثل التلاحم الحضري الحاصل ما بين مدينتي الهفوف والمبرز والمكون بما يسمى بـ "حاضرة الأحساء" أحد أهم مظاهر التنامي، وقد بلغت نسبة التحضر (68%) مما جعلها ضمن برنامج "مستقبل المدن السعودية"، كما يعد الثقل السكاني الذي تحظى به واحة الأحساء أحد أهم تحدياتها، ونتيجة ما يقتضيه هذا النمو المتزامن مساحياً وسكانياً من زيادة في الطلب على البنية التحتية، إلى جانب متطلبات الحياة الحضرية للطاقة الكهربائية في معظم الجوانب الخدمية والأنشطة الاقتصادية، وما أشارت إليه الرؤية السعودية (2030م) بضرورة فهم الاتجاهات الحالية في الطلب على الطاقة الكهربائية كمؤشر مهم في تفسير أنماط التنمية الاقتصادية في الدولة بشكل عام؛ فقد ركزت الدراسة على الأهداف التالية: معرفة واقع الطاقة الكهربائية وخصائصها في واحة الأحساء، وتحليل التوزيع القطاعي والجغرافي لاستهلاك الطاقة الكهربائية فيها، والتحليل المكاني للطاقة الكهربائية، وأثر المتغيرات الاقتصادية والحضرية على استهلاك الطاقة الكهربائية في المنطقة ذاتها، والتنبؤ المستقبلي لحجم الطلب واتجاهاته على الطاقة الكهربائية حتى (2040م)، وقد طبقت الدراسة المنهج الموضوعي والاستقرائي وأسلوب التحليل المكاني والإحصائي، كما استخدمت الدراسة عدداً من المعادلات في معالجة البيانات وتحليلها، أبرزها: معامل الارتباط "بيرسون"/الانحدار المتعدد، ومتوسطات نصيب الفرد / المشترك، والاسقاطات / الطريقة الأسية للتقديرات المستقبلية، ومعامل صلة الجوار، وبعض أدوات تحليل قياسات التوزيع المكاني، وبناء نماذج تغير الأرض / السلوك الذاتي الخلوي-ماركوف، ومصفوفة ماركوف لاحتمالية الانتقال بين الأصناف، ومعامل كابا.
كما استخدمت عدداً من البرامج والتقنيات منها: (ArcMap)، (SPSS)، Idrisi) TerrSet)، لدعم الدراسة وتحقيق التكامل بالدمج بينهم. وخرجت الدراسة بعدد من النتائج أبرزها: -أظهر معامل ارتباط المتغيرات الاقتصادية علاقة طردية موجبة بين (عدد السكان/عدد المشتركين) تبعاً للتوزيع القطاعي والجغرافي للطاقة الكهربائية المستهلكة للفترة (2006-2020م)، كما سجل القطاع المنزلي في مقدمة القطاعات المستهلكة للطاقة الكهربائية للعام (2020م)، بينما نال القطاع الزراعي أدنى مستوى من جملة القطاعات للعام نفسه. -أخذ توزيع محولات الطاقة الكهربائية في واحة الأحساء النمط العام (المتجمع) وفقاً لمعامل صلة الجوار. -أشارت نتائج التحليلات المكانية الإحصائية تبعاً لمستويات العلاقة الاقتصادية بين العرض والطلب إلى توافق الاتجاه التوزيعي لمحولات الطاقة الكهربائية (عرض)، مع محور اتجاه النمو الحضري في المساحات (طلب) على مستوى واحة الأحساء، بينما كشف تحليل المرئيات الفضائية مستويات متباينة في المكتسب والمفقود من التغيرات الحضرية. -سجلت المناطق العمرانية زيادة على حساب الأراضي الفضاء والأراضي الزراعية في واحة الأحساء، بينما سجلت المناطق الزراعية ومناطق الفضاء تناقصاً في المساحات من إجمالي المساحة الكلية خلال الفترة (2020-2000م)، -قدمت الدراسة الصورة المستقبلية المحتملة للطلب على الطاقة الكهربائية من خلال تحليل المتغيرات الاقتصادية والحضرية حتى عام (2040م)، من خلال استخراج تقديرات عدد السكان المتوقع، والطاقة الكهربائية المتوقع استهلاكها، إلى جانب تقدير التغيرات المحتملة في المساحات الحضرية من إجمالي مساحة منطقة الدراسة حتى عام (2040م)، ويعد تزايد التقديرات المستقبلية حالة إيجابية نتيجة الزيادة السكانية المتوقعة وما يترتب عليها من توسع عمراني وأنشطة اقتصادية، تتطلب التوازن بين العرض والطلب.
تضمنت الأطروحة خمسة فصول، ناقش الأول منها الإجراءات المنهجية والإطار النظري، بينما باشر الفصلان الثاني والثالث تطور الطاقة الكهربائية والتحليل الكمي للطاقة الكهربائية، وركز الفصل الرابع على التحليل المكاني للطاقة الكهربائية، وفتح الفصل الخامس الآفاق المستقبلية لتطوير الطاقة الكهربائية في واحة الأحساء، واختتمت الأطروحة بعدد من النتائج والتوصيات.
Description
Management the urban environment requires achieving spatial balance, to ensure the sustainability of integration and interaction between its elements, and accordingly the study problem is summarized in that Al-Ahsa Oasis is witnessing rapid and changing developments in the demographic, spatial and economic aspects, as it includes about 89 of population centers among cities or villages and varies in size and distribution. Also, the urban cohesion between the cities of Hofuf and Al Mubarraz, represents one of the most important manifestations of growth which is called “Al-Ahsa metropolis”. The urbanization rate reached 68%, making it part of the "Future of Saudi Cities" program. The population weight of Al-Ahsa Oasis is one of its most important challenges, As a result of what this spatial and population growth requires from the increase in the demand for infrastructure, in addition to the requirements of urban life for electric energy in most service aspects and economic activities; In addition to what the Saudi Vision 2030 indicated, by the necessary to understand the current trends in the demand for electric energy, as an important indicator in interpreting the patterns of economic development in the country in general. Therefore, the study focused on the following objectives: Knowing the reality of electrical energy and its characteristics in the Al-Ahsa Oasis, analyzing the sectorial and geographical distribution of electrical energy consumption in Al-Ahsa Oasis, spatial analysis of electrical energy in Al-Ahsa Oasis, the impact of economic and urban variables on the consumption of electrical energy in Al-Ahsa Oasis, future prediction about the volume and trends of demand for electrical energy up to 2040 in Al-Ahsa Oasis. The study applied the objective and inductive approach and the spatial and statistical analysis method. The study also used the following equations in data processing and analysis: *Pearson correlation coefficient/multiple regression, *per capita/joint averages, *projections/exponential method for future estimates, *Neighborhood correlation coefficient, *some tools for analyzing measurements of spatial distribution, *Models of land change/Cellular Autonomy-Markov, *Markov matrix for the transition probability between classes, *Kappa coefficient. It also used a number of programs and technologies, ArcMap, SPSS, Idrisi TerrSet, to support the study and achieve integration between them. The study came out with a number of results; the correlation coefficient of economic variables according to the sectoral and geographical distribution of the consumed electric energy for the period 2010-2020 AD, showed a positive direct relationship between the population and the number of subscribers. The home sector was at the forefront of the sectors consuming electric energy for the year 2020, while the agricultural sector had the lowest level of the total sectors for the same year. The distribution of electrical power transformers in the Al-Ahsa Oasis took the general pattern (aggregated) according to the neighborhood correlation coefficient. The results of the statistical spatial analyzes according to the levels of the economic relationship between supply and demand; indicated to the agreement of the distributional direction of electric power transformers (supply), with the axis of urban growth in areas (demand) at the level of Al-Ahsa Oasis, and the direction took the axis of northwest-southeast. While the analysis of satellite visuals revealed varying levels in gained and lost from urban changes, urban areas recorded an increase of at the expense of open lands and agricultural lands in Al-Ahsa Oasis, while agricultural and space areas recorded a decrease in areas of the total area during the period 2000-2020. The study presented the potential future picture of the demand for electric energy by analyzing the economic and urban variables until the year 2040 AD, by extracting estimates of the expected population, and the electric energy expected to be consumed, in addition to estimating the potential changes in urban spaces from the total area of the study area until the year 2040 AD, the increase in future estimates is a positive case as a result of the expected population increase and the consequent urban expansion and economic activities, which require a balance between supply and demand.
The thesis included five chapters, the first of which discussed the methodological procedures and the theoretical framework, while the second and third chapters came about the development of electrical energy and quantitative analysis of electrical energy, the fourth chapter focused on the spatial analysis of electrical energy, and the fifth chapter concluded with the future prospects for the development of electrical energy in Al-Ahsa Oasis, and the thesis was concluded with a number of findings and recommendations.
Management the urban environment requires achieving spatial balance, to ensure the sustainability of integration and interaction between its elements, and accordingly the study problem is summarized in that Al-Ahsa Oasis is witnessing rapid and changing developments in the demographic, spatial and economic aspects, as it includes about 89 of population centers among cities or villages and varies in size and distribution. Also, the urban cohesion between the cities of Hofuf and Al Mubarraz, represents one of the most important manifestations of growth which is called “Al-Ahsa metropolis”. The urbanization rate reached 68%, making it part of the "Future of Saudi Cities" program. The population weight of Al-Ahsa Oasis is one of its most important challenges, As a result of what this spatial and population growth requires from the increase in the demand for infrastructure, in addition to the requirements of urban life for electric energy in most service aspects and economic activities; In addition to what the Saudi Vision 2030 indicated, by the necessary to understand the current trends in the demand for electric energy, as an important indicator in interpreting the patterns of economic development in the country in general. Therefore, the study focused on the following objectives: Knowing the reality of electrical energy and its characteristics in the Al-Ahsa Oasis, analyzing the sectorial and geographical distribution of electrical energy consumption in Al-Ahsa Oasis, spatial analysis of electrical energy in Al-Ahsa Oasis, the impact of economic and urban variables on the consumption of electrical energy in Al Ahsa Oasis, future prediction about the volume and trends of demand for electrical energy up to 2040 in Al-Ahsa Oasis. The study applied the objective and inductive approach and the spatial and statistical analysis method. The study also used the following equations in data processing and analysis: *Pearson correlation coefficient/multiple regression, *per capita/joint averages, *projections/exponential method for future estimates, *Neighborhood correlation coefficient, *some tools for analyzing measurements of spatial distribution, *Models of land change/Cellular Autonomy-Markov, *Markov matrix for the transition probability between classes, *Kappa coefficient. It also used a number of programs and technologies, ArcMap, SPSS, Idrisi TerrSet, to support the study and achieve integration between them. The study came out with a number of results; the correlation coefficient of economic variables according to the sectoral and geographical distribution of the consumed electric energy for the period 2010-2020 AD, showed a positive direct relationship between the population and the number of subscribers. The home sector was at the forefront of the sectors consuming electric energy for the year 2020, while the agricultural sector had the lowest level of the total sectors for the same year. The distribution of electrical power transformers in the Al-Ahsa Oasis took the general pattern (aggregated) according to the neighborhood correlation coefficient. The results of the statistical spatial analyzes according to the levels of the economic relationship between supply and demand; indicated to the agreement of the distributional direction of electric power transformers (supply), with the axis of urban growth in areas (demand) at the level of Al Ahsa Oasis, and the direction took the axis of northwest-southeast. While the analysis of satellite visuals revealed varying levels in gained and lost from urban changes, urban areas recorded an increase of at the expense of open lands and agricultural lands in Al-Ahsa Oasis, while agricultural and space areas recorded a decrease in areas of the total area during the period 2000- 2020. The study presented the potential future picture of the demand for electric energy by analyzing the economic and urban variables until the year 2040 AD, by extracting estimates of the expected population, and the electric energy expected to be consumed, in addition to estimating the potential changes in urban spaces from the total area of the study area until the year 2040 AD, the increase in future estimates is a positive case as a result of the expected population increase and the consequent urban expansion and economic activities, which require a balance between supply and demand. The thesis included five chapters, the first of which discussed the methodological procedures and the theoretical framework, while the second and third chapters came about the development of electrical energy and quantitative analysis of electrical energy, the fourth chapter focused on the spatial analysis of electrical energy, and the fifth chapter concluded with the future prospects for the development of electrical energy in Al-Ahsa Oasis, and the thesis was concluded with a number of findings and recommendations.
Management the urban environment requires achieving spatial balance, to ensure the sustainability of integration and interaction between its elements, and accordingly the study problem is summarized in that Al-Ahsa Oasis is witnessing rapid and changing developments in the demographic, spatial and economic aspects, as it includes about 89 of population centers among cities or villages and varies in size and distribution. Also, the urban cohesion between the cities of Hofuf and Al Mubarraz, represents one of the most important manifestations of growth which is called “Al-Ahsa metropolis”. The urbanization rate reached 68%, making it part of the "Future of Saudi Cities" program. The population weight of Al-Ahsa Oasis is one of its most important challenges, As a result of what this spatial and population growth requires from the increase in the demand for infrastructure, in addition to the requirements of urban life for electric energy in most service aspects and economic activities; In addition to what the Saudi Vision 2030 indicated, by the necessary to understand the current trends in the demand for electric energy, as an important indicator in interpreting the patterns of economic development in the country in general. Therefore, the study focused on the following objectives: Knowing the reality of electrical energy and its characteristics in the Al-Ahsa Oasis, analyzing the sectorial and geographical distribution of electrical energy consumption in Al-Ahsa Oasis, spatial analysis of electrical energy in Al-Ahsa Oasis, the impact of economic and urban variables on the consumption of electrical energy in Al Ahsa Oasis, future prediction about the volume and trends of demand for electrical energy up to 2040 in Al-Ahsa Oasis. The study applied the objective and inductive approach and the spatial and statistical analysis method. The study also used the following equations in data processing and analysis: *Pearson correlation coefficient/multiple regression, *per capita/joint averages, *projections/exponential method for future estimates, *Neighborhood correlation coefficient, *some tools for analyzing measurements of spatial distribution, *Models of land change/Cellular Autonomy-Markov, *Markov matrix for the transition probability between classes, *Kappa coefficient. It also used a number of programs and technologies, ArcMap, SPSS, Idrisi TerrSet, to support the study and achieve integration between them. The study came out with a number of results; the correlation coefficient of economic variables according to the sectoral and geographical distribution of the consumed electric energy for the period 2010-2020 AD, showed a positive direct relationship between the population and the number of subscribers. The home sector was at the forefront of the sectors consuming electric energy for the year 2020, while the agricultural sector had the lowest level of the total sectors for the same year. The distribution of electrical power transformers in the Al-Ahsa Oasis took the general pattern (aggregated) according to the neighborhood correlation coefficient. The results of the statistical spatial analyzes according to the levels of the economic relationship between supply and demand; indicated to the agreement of the distributional direction of electric power transformers (supply), with the axis of urban growth in areas (demand) at the level of Al Ahsa Oasis, and the direction took the axis of northwest-southeast. While the analysis of satellite visuals revealed varying levels in gained and lost from urban changes, urban areas recorded an increase of at the expense of open lands and agricultural lands in Al-Ahsa Oasis, while agricultural and space areas recorded a decrease in areas of the total area during the period 2000- 2020. The study presented the potential future picture of the demand for electric energy by analyzing the economic and urban variables until the year 2040 AD, by extracting estimates of the expected population, and the electric energy expected to be consumed, in addition to estimating the potential changes in urban spaces from the total area of the study area until the year 2040 AD, the increase in future estimates is a positive case as a result of the expected population increase and the consequent urban expansion and economic activities, which require a balance between supply and demand. The thesis included five chapters, the first of which discussed the methodological procedures and the theoretical framework, while the second and third chapters came about the development of electrical energy and quantitative analysis of electrical energy, the fourth chapter focused on the spatial analysis of electrical energy, and the fifth chapter concluded with the future prospects for the development of electrical energy in Al-Ahsa Oasis, and the thesis was concluded with a number of findings and recommendations.